HNWI REAL ESTATE EXPECTATIONS
Our global HNWI survey respondents also echo our views, with most expecting the residential market to register price rises of 5–10% this year, citing global headwinds as the primary risk to the emirate’s real estate market.
26 May 2023
MARKET DYNAMICS APPEAR WELL UNDERSTOOD
Overall, our respondents expect residential prices to rise by an average of 12% this year, above our forecast for the mainstream market but broadly in line with our view for the prime market.
The largest group (36%) predict growth in 2023 will range between 5–10%, while 20% believe prices could rise by 10–15%. Nearly a fifth (18%) expect residential values to increase by over 20% this year.
18% of those who visit Dubai at least once a year forecast growth of 10–15% in 2023, while most of those who have never visited have slightly more tempered expectations of increases of 5–10% (37%).
GLOBAL AND SUPPLY RISKS DOMINATE MINDS
Our respondents listed a ‘global economic slowdown’ and the risk of ‘residential property oversupply’ as the top two downside risks facing Dubai’s residential real estate market at 22% each.
Oversupply fears appear to be of greater concern to Europe//UK HNWI as this is named as their top concern (34%), followed by a ‘global economic slowdown’ (16%) and the ‘conflict in eastern Europe’ (16%).
East Asian respondents believe external factors pose the greatest risk to Dubai’s residential market, with an ‘increase in global inflation’ (25%) and a ‘global economic slowdown’ (25%) being cited as their main areas of concern.
